Israel’s Election Results Have Left the Next Government Uncertain
The complete unofficial results of the election in Israel are in. What are the results? Who won? Who lost? Who will be the Prime Minister? Let’s take a look.
The Results
In Israel, people vote for a party list. Seats in the Knesset are allocated to each party according to their percentage of the vote. If a party gets one-third of the votes, it receives one-third, or forty, of the seats, and the first 40 people on its list become Knesset members.
To become Prime Minister, a Knesset member needs to put together a coalition of 61 Knesset members. Since no party has ever won a majority of the seats, all Israeli governments have been coalitions of several parties.
There were essentially three blocs competing in the recent election: the parties in the current governing coalition, the opposition bloc, and the Arab bloc.
The final unofficial results are:
Current Coalition Bloc
Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu: 27
Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir: 7
United Torah Judaism led by Yaakov Asher: 7
Shas led by Aryeh Deri: 6
Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich: 6
Total for the Current Coalition Bloc: 53
Opposition Bloc
Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot: 21
B’Yachad led by Naftali Bennett: 12
The Democrats led by Yair Golan: 8
Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman: 7
Total for the Opposition Bloc: 48
Arab Bloc
Joint List led by Yosef Jabareen: 11
Ra’am led by Mansour Abbas: 8
Total for the Arab Bloc: 19
Who Won? Who Lost?
The big winners are the Arab parties. Arabs voted at a higher proportion, 80%, than the overall population, at 77%. With both Jewish blocs falling well short of a majority, the Joint List and Ra’am hold the balance of power. They are positioned to play a significant role in selecting the next Prime Minister. At the very least, they have proven themselves as a force to be reckoned with.
These results also mean that Israel has to seriously face the issue of the future of Judea and Samaria. Israeli Arabs, who represent 20% of the population, are now in a position to influence and maybe even dictate the positions of the next Israeli government. If Israel extends sovereignty to Judea and Samaria, the Arabs will become over 40% of the population. If we add Gaza to the equation, they become the majority. Denying them citizenship and the right to vote would completely alienate Israel’s few remaining friends on the international stage, leaving Israel more isolated than ever before. Granting them citizenship and the right to vote would effectively turn Israel into a binational state.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest party, and his Coalition Bloc has the largest number of seats, but he has lost the election. His coalition has lost 15 seats, going from a solid majority of 68 to 53. His Likud party went down from 32 seats to 27. Both the Opposition Bloc and the Arab parties have made clear that toppling Netanyahu is their top priority. With a total of 67 seats, they are strongly positioned to do so. When a governing coalition loses 24% of its seats, that is a ringing vote of no confidence. But while he has lost the election, Netanyahu may well be able to hang on as Prime Minister.
Another big loser in the Coalition Bloc is Shas, which went down from 11 seats to six. Shas has traditionally represented the broad spectrum of Sephardic and Mizrachi Jews. This includes those who proudly serve in the IDF while remaining fully committed to a life of Torah and mitzvoth, and Haredim who reject military service and spend full-time learning. Shas has taken a hardline stand against Haredi service in the IDF. Rav Yitzchak Yosef, the spiritual leader of Shas, has said that yeshivah students should flush their draft notices down the toilet. Leaders of Shas have stated that students and graduates of Hesder Yeshivot who combine serious Torah studies with service in the IDF have abandoned Torah. Much of Shas’ constituency, whose members have lost loved ones or spent hundreds of days in the reserves, feels that Shas has betrayed them. Shas losing close to half of its seats speaks for itself.
Gadi Eisenkot is yet another loser. Polls showed his Yashar as the leading party and the Opposition Bloc winning a plurality of Knesset seats. Yet on Election Day, Yashar finished well behind Likud. The Opposition Bloc ran behind the Coalition Bloc and lost the Jewish vote decisively. Eisenkot ran a low-key campaign based on his experience as Chief of Staff of the IDF and his not being Netanyahu. That was not enough. Eisenkot failed to articulate a vision for the future of Israel and what he stood for. The public may have shown its discontent with Netanyahu, but it did not give Eisenkot a mandate to replace him.
Other losers in the Opposition Bloc were Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Polls over the last three years showed that Bennett was Netanyahu’s strongest challenger. In 2021, Bennett, the one-time leader of the National Religious Party and the Settler Movement, joined Lapid, an anti-religious secularist, and Abbas, an Islamist, in forming a coalition government. Bennett justified it by saying that the coalition was necessary to avoid a sixth divisive election in less than five years. Bennett’s right-wing supporters were outraged. In the next election, Bennett did not even run for the Knesset. But after October 7, 2023, many of Bennett’s former supporters seemed ready to forgive him. Polls showed him as Netanyahu’s strongest challenger and the odds-on favorite to become Prime Minister. When Bennett joined forces with Lapid, it reminded people of why they disliked Bennett to begin with. The support of both crumbled. In the previous Knesset, Lapid’s Yesh Atid was the second-largest party with 24 seats. Running together, Bennett, the onetime front-runner, and Lapid, the current Opposition Leader, won only twelve seats.
Who Will Be the Next Prime Minister?
The procedure calls for President Isaac Herzog to meet with each party. Based on their recommendations, he will charge a Knesset member with forming a government. The Prime Minister-designate will have 28 days to form a coalition that wins a vote of confidence in the Knesset, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. If the Prime Minister-designate fails, the President can charge another Knesset member, who will have 30 days to form a government. If he or she fails, the Knesset can choose a third person or call for a new election. Netanyahu will continue to serve as Prime Minister until a new government wins a vote of confidence in the Knesset. By the time this newspaper appears, the process may well have begun to play out.
All the parties in the Opposition Bloc and the Arab Bloc have publicly announced that they will recommend Eisenkot as Prime Minister in their meetings with President Herzog. This would give Eisenkot a clear majority. It is almost certain that Herzog will give Eisenkot the first shot at forming the government.
Receiving the designation is one thing. Actually putting together a government is a much greater challenge. The task will be even more difficult because the Opposition painted itself into a corner in the campaign. They ruled out serving with Netanyahu, the Haredi parties, the Arabs, the Religious Zionists, and Otzma Yehudit. Between them, those parties have 72 of the 120 Knesset seats. If everyone keeps their promises, no one will be able to form a government.
Many Israeli politicians have done what they swore they would never do. Eisenkot has several paths to be able to form a government.
Minority Government With Arab Support – Between them, the Opposition Bloc and the Arab Bloc have enough seats to install a government. Yashar, B’Yachad, and Yisrael Beiteinu would form the government, with the Arab parties voting in favor of it in the Knesset. Lieberman has already stated that he is opposed to such an arrangement and will support a unity government. Bennett might also object. Without Bennett and Lieberman, Eisenkot would fail to form a government.
Eisenkot-Haredi Partnership – United Torah Judaism and Shas have long been aligned with Netanyahu. But they have come to distrust him because of his failure to pass legislation that would grant draft exemptions to all Haredim. United Torah Judaism has openly stated that it is willing to support Eisenkot if it is able to reach an agreement on the draft. In the past, Rav Yosef said that Netanyahu would never do teshuvah, but that Eisenkot might, indicating that Shas may also be open to a compromise with Eisenkot on the Haredi conscription issue. This may sound far-fetched, but the opening is there. The Opposition has called for all Haredim to perform national service. Some of them might be able to perform their national service through learning. Others would work on chesed programs in their own neighborhoods. Some would serve in the IDF. But with Eisenkot, Bennett, and Lieberman all having centered their campaigns on a call for universal conscription, and with United Torah Judaism and Shas adamant in their position that no Haredim should serve in the IDF, it is hard to see the Opposition Bloc and the Haredim coming to an agreement.
A third possibility is a National Unity government consisting of Yashar, Likud, B’Yachad, and Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Eisenkot. It is unlikely that Netanyahu, as leader of the largest party, would agree to serve as a junior partner in an Eisenkot-led government.
While the Opposition Bloc may not be able to put together the votes to form a new government, it clearly has enough votes to take control of the Knesset and pass legislation. It could pass legislation to force Haredi conscription, to deny government services to the families of individuals who refuse to serve, and to cut off funding for institutions that fail to cooperate. It might also pass legislation limiting a Prime Minister to eight years in office or stipulating that a person under indictment cannot be appointed as Prime Minister, essentially disqualifying Netanyahu. Such legislation might well be struck down by the courts if it were applied retroactively to someone who has already served eight years or been indicted. It is ironic that at some point, the courts, for which Netanyahu has shown such contempt, may well be the ones to save his political career.
Should Eisenkot fail to form a government, Netanyahu would likely get the next shot. He would have to win over a number of Knesset members from the Opposition Bloc in order to get the 61 votes needed. Both Bennett and Lieberman are former Netanyahu protégés who had bitter falling-outs with him. Both have vowed never to serve under Netanyahu. But their differences with Netanyahu are political and personal, not ideological. They may agree to serve in a government under Netanyahu, especially if Netanyahu agrees to serve only half the term before making way for Bennett or Lieberman to serve the other half. But a Netanyahu government would also have to include United Torah Judaism, Shas, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. With Bennett and Lieberman both having focused their campaigns on never sitting in a government with the Haredim, it is highly unlikely that they would agree to be part of a Netanyahu-led government.
Many people’s preferred outcome would be a National Unity government of Likud, Yashar, B’Yachad, and Yisrael Beiteinu, with Netanyahu and Eisenkot each serving as Prime Minister for two years of the four-year term. Such an arrangement between Shimon Peres and Yitzchak Shamir worked well in the 1980s. Putting together a common agenda for such a government would be difficult but doable. The real sticking point is likely to be who should go first in the rotation.
If no one succeeds in forming a government, new elections would be scheduled.
The key to who will be the next Prime Minister is actually in the hands of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. With their support, Eisenkot can form a minority government in partnership with the Arab bloc. With their support, Netanyahu can form a government. If they withhold their support from both Eisenkot and Netanyahu, they can force new elections. They can use that leverage to bring about their preferred result, a National Unity government with rotating Prime Ministers.