The feeling of history repeating itself is matched by the calendar and the centennials of this year, the death of Vladimir Lenin in Russia, the abolition of the Ottoman caliphate in Turkey, recognition of the Soviet Union by Britain, consolidation of power in Italy by Mussolini, and the nine-month prison sentence served by Adolf Hitler in which he wrote his infamous manifesto.
This year promises to be historic with elections coming up among European Union nations, India, and Indonesia, sizable democracies whose results will impact how they relate to other nations and their own citizens. Autocracies such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia will have their sham elections to solidify power among their leaders.
The most watched election among all these will be our own, and the matter at stake is whether the United States would remain the arsenal of democracy, as coined by Woodrow Wilson and reaffirmed by President Joe Biden, or retreat into isolationism that was the policy of his successors in the Roaring Twenties.
“You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?” Republican candidate Donald Trump said at a rally in South Carolina last week. “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.”
He was speaking about our NATO allies and the perception that they are not paying their share in the collective military defense alliance.
The campaign speech took place during an impasse on Capitol Hill in which the Senate passed a bipartisan deal on border security, with funding for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, which was then kept from the House floor by Speaker Mike Johnson, in deference to Trump.
“I’ve seen enough. This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the President has created,” Rep. Johnson tweeted. “If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival.” His rebuke of the bill contrasts with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who spoke positively of the deal.
“America’s sovereignty is being tested here at home, and our credibility is being tested by emboldened adversaries around the world. The challenges we face will not resolve themselves, nor will our adversaries wait for America to muster the resolve to meet them,” Sen. McConnell wrote in a statement.
In the same week, former Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson was feted in Moscow and given an exclusive interview with Russian president Vladimir Putin, who bored him with centuries of revised history in which he looked beyond the status of Ukraine, focusing on another former possession of his empire.
“Poland turned out to be uncompromising, and Hitler had nothing to do but start implementing his plans with Poland,” he said of the 1939 invasion that launched World War II. “By the way, the USSR – I have read some archive documents – behaved very honestly.” He reiterated that Russia has no ambitions against Poland and the Baltic states.
Returning to Trump’s remark that all NATO members contribute two percent of their gross domestic product on defense, it is a guideline, while military assistance in case of war is an obligation.
“NATO is not a private security service. When Article 5 was first invoked after 9/11, Poland deployed a brigade of troops to Afghanistan, and at no time did we send an invoice to Washington. Alliances also strengthen the USA,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said in Paris two days after Trump’s stump speech.
In fact, Poland pays 3.9%, the highest percentage, with its Baltic neighbors and newest member Finland also exceeding the 2% guideline. The United States spends 3.5% according to data provided by NATO. Considering the difference in GDP between this country and its Eastern European allies, they are pulling above their weight, aware of the Russian bear staring at their borders.
Perhaps none of this matters to Trump voters who support Israel, and care nothing for other embattled democracies such as Ukraine and Taiwan. The exceptionalism granted to Israel is helpful in the short run, but how would other ethnic and religious communities here and abroad feel if this country gives up on its historical role as a beacon of freedom for the world’s oppressed, who yearn to replicate our values in their homelands?
When we support Ukraine and our NATO allies, in turn these nations are more likely to offer assistance and trade with Israel as part of the larger struggle against terrorism. In the short run, military aid for Israel to the exclusion of other historical allies will inevitably contribute to the victory against Hamas and deter Hezbollah, but after the guns fall silent, the task of economic rebuilding will be daunting. To do so, Israel cannot be isolated from the global economy. It needs multiple trading partners and diplomatic allies, rather than a stark future in which it is sanctioned and dependent exclusively on the United States.
To ensure a prosperous postwar in Israel, the United States must stand by its NATO commitments and expand rather than shrink its presence on the world stage. Doing otherwise would mean a revival of the isolationism of a century ago, when we stood back and dictators emerged across Europe, plunging the continent into a world war, and endangering Jewish lives.
By Sergey Kadinsky