When New York City Mayor Eric Adams looked at the political realities and realized that his bid for re-election would not survive past the June Democratic primary, he threw a Hail Mary pass to stay in power going forward. Instead of trying to compete against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic Socialist upstart Zohran Mamdani, he’s skipping the primary and will run for reelection as an independent. This move not only extends his campaign past June, but it also opens the field up to a potential Republican candidate.
The primaries in New York are based on Ranked Choice Voting, which means that, even though Cuomo has a lead in the polling as of now, anything can happen. That’s a major problem for those who enjoy some sanity from their Democratic candidates, because Mamdani is currently polling second, and he does not qualify as sane.
Mamdani is a self-declared Democratic Socialist. For those who don’t know what that truly means, it’s basically a group of people who live in a fantasy land with endless resources and no consequences for their actions. For example, Mamdani wants to abolish rent and create non-profit groceries run by the government. Only children would think that’s a sensible idea. This is aside from his blatant antisemitism. Mamdani, who is a New York State Assemblyman, already pushed legislation that would empower the Attorney General to shut down every Jewish synagogue and non-profit in the state for giving charity to Israel. As Mayor, there is no doubt he would target any pro-Israel institution with a vengeance.
Yet it is entirely plausible that he becomes the candidate under a Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system. Hypothetically, Andrew Cuomo could start strong with 40% of first-choice votes (400,000), while Zohran Mamdani trails at 15% (150,000), followed by candidates like Brad Lander (10%), Adrienne Adams (8%), and others. Since no one hits 50%, RCV begins, eliminating lower vote-getters like Jessica Ramos, Zellnor Myrie, Scott Stringer, and Adrienne Adams one by one, with their voters’ second and third choices—especially from progressives—boosting Mamdani (e.g., Ramos’ 20,000 and Myrie’s 30,000 shift heavily to him), until it’s down to Cuomo (49.97%, 499,650) and Mamdani (25.17%, 251,750) plus Lander (17.17%, 171,700), and when Lander’s eliminated, his voters—65% (111,605) to Mamdani versus 25% (42,925) to Cuomo—push Mamdani to 52.62% (363,355) of the remaining 923,050 votes, securing him the nomination as progressives rally to block Cuomo despite his initial lead. It’s not enough for Cuomo to be the first choice for voters; he needs to have enough second and third choice voters to claim victory.
This is why Jewish organizations, spearheaded by the Jewish Voters Action Network (JVAN) under Maury Litwack’s leadership, have launched a significant effort to register Jewish voters as Democrats for the June primary. Nearly 7,000 Jewish voters have recently enrolled as Democrats, with 4,130 switching from independent, Republican, or other affiliations and 2,564 being new registrants, totaling 6,695 fresh Democratic voters since January—a number JVAN expects to grow. Backed by a $7 million non-partisan mobilization campaign, this push echoes the successful strategy used to unseat “Squad” member Jamaal Bowman in 2024, where Litwack mobilized Jews in Westchester County to support the pro-Israel George Latimer. Driven by rising antisemitism concerns—which spiked after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the Gaza war—JVAN has focused on key districts, achieving high re-registration rates, like 49% in Manhattan’s District 4 and 53% in Brooklyn’s District 48, to ensure Jewish voices, wary of both the extreme left and right, influence the Democratic primary, which heavily favors its winner in the general election. Litwack calls this a “sleeping giant” awakening, with Jews “punching above their weight” to counter candidates like Mamdani.
Depending on who wins the Democratic Primary, they need to then go to the general election. This is where the race really blows wide open, and why Adams’ run as an independent is so important. If the primary race is close, there are going to be a lot of disaffected voters out there. They may vote for Adams, or they may stay home; anything can happen.
There’s a dark horse candidate out there—Curtis Sliwa. Sliwa has been a fixture in New York City for 50 years. When he ran for Mayor in 2021, he lost by a considerable margin against Adams. The world has changed a lot in the last four years. When Sliwa last ran, his association with Trump was a killer because Trump was politically dead. Now Trump is the President again, and he overperformed in New York City last November. Trump overperformed compared to 2020, winning parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and even the Bronx.
Unlike the primary, the general election winner only needs to receive the most votes. Adams could retain his loyal base and walk away with 30%, the winner of the Democratic primary could underperform because of the contentious primary race and the disaffected voters that come out of that, and Sliwa could get in based on outer borough support and become Mayor with 33% of the vote. While not common, it’s not unprecedented, especially when there is no law to have a runoff if a candidate fails to secure a majority. Jesse Ventura became Governor of Minnesota in 1998 with only 37% of the vote.
This is uncharted territory for NYC voters, who usually end their search for a Mayor after the Democratic primaries are over. This is also a great opportunity for Sliwa, who can capitalize on the scandal-ridden and dysfunctional Democrats to secure the biggest victory for Republicans in New York City in over 30 years. 2025 will definitely be a political shift of epic proportions in New York; the only question is in what direction the winds are blowing.
Moshe Hill is a political analyst and columnist. His work can be found at www.aHillwithaView.com and on X at @HillWithView.