As the Ukraine-Russian War enters into its fourth year with nearly a million casualties, including 146,000-211,000 Russians (BBC) killed and 70,000 Ukrainians dead (as of August 2023, according to the NYT), drastic action is required to bring this war to an end.
In 1905, President Theodore Roosevelt ended another bloody war - that one between Russia and Japan. President Roosevelt’s motto was “speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” President Roosevelt’s Big Stick foreign policy brought the two warring countries together in a peace deal. As a result, I believe President Roosevelt saved my grandfather’s life by ending the war in which my grandfather was fighting for the Russians against Japan. As a Jewish soldier, he was automatically sent to the frontlines and had the war not ended, he likely would have been killed. Interestingly, my grandfather was from the Ukraine, not far from Kyiv. At that time, Russia and the Ukraine were one. Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick made the difference. I am also indebted to President Roosevelt for allowing my grandfather to immigrate to the United States in 1910.
President Trump has his work cut out in order to make peace between Russia and Ukraine. Roosevelt used economics to convince Russia to end the Russo-Japanese War. Russia actually conceded territory to Japan but did not have to indemnify Japan for the war. Russia started the war, so Japan wanted compensation. Americans had sided with Japan throughout the war. The Treaty of Portsmouth won Teddy Roosevelt a Nobel Peace Prize.
I trust that President Trump can make a similar treaty between Ukraine and Russia. Once again, economics has a vital role to play. Until President Trump was elected, this war was just going to go on and on. There was no end in sight. Hundreds of thousands were destined to die. The Russians and the Ukrainians both fight to the death. In World War II, their stubbornness helped defeat the Nazis. Presently, their obstinacy is taking its toll on both sides. Peace is more important now than ever. President Trump decided that the approach taken by the Biden Administration had failed. Hence, President Trump flipped the script. No longer would Ukraine get a free ride. Ukraine would pay back America for the billions it provided in weaponry for a deal on titanium, lithium, oil, natural gas, and other rare earth elements. Although security guarantees were not stated explicitly, they were implied by the very nature of the agreement. President Zelenskyy had to trust President Trump’s big stick. Thus far, President Zelenskyy has not figured that out. Ultimately, he will. He has no choice. Russia economically is in dire straits, just as they were after the Russo-Japanese War. President Trump will capitalize on this fact. The economic sanctions placed on Russia because of their invasion of the Ukraine are definitely major leverage.
President Trump has many other options to make Russia end the war. The fact that he has the Russians sitting down at all is a major accomplishment. I fully expect President Trump to pull off a deal. He will definitely deserve a Nobel Peace Prize when he does.
Joseph M. Frager is a physician and lifelong activist.
