The fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria is a massive sea change in the region, and the latest domino to fall in a decade old story of American abdication on the world stage. Regardless of whether or not America should be the global police, the fact remains that when the American military is a feared omni-presence, the world is actually a safer place.
The election of Barack Obama was the beginning of this trend to remove America from the global stage. After the George W. Bush presidency, the American people were sick of sending our troops overseas to topple despotic leaders and rebuild failed states in our own image. Obama began his presidency by going around the Middle East apologizing for the United States, and then spent his presidency slashing the military. Between sequestration, budget cuts, and inability to keep a functioning military, the end of the Obama era saw a 25% reduction in military spending and the smallest American military since World War II.
The results were plain to see. During Obama’s time, the Syrian Civil War began, ISIS became a global menace, North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests, Russia took Crimea from Ukraine, and the United States continued its endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. To make up for this, Obama conducted a series of drone strikes, ten times more than his predecessor. Obama thought he could remake the world with smart bombs, but for all his blustering and claims to the contrary, left it far more dangerous than when he started.
Then came the first Trump administration, which promised a robust global presence. In the four years of Trump’s first term, seemingly on the strength of his own rhetoric, Russia, North Korea, China and Iran all became less aggressive. ISIS was destroyed so quickly people couldn’t even react properly. Multiple peace accords were signed, the most famous one being the Abraham Accords, but also between Serbia and Kosovo.
By the numbers, the second Obama term - after he told the Russians he’d have “more flexibility” when he was re-elected, when he called ISIS the “J.V. squad” and sent pallets of cash to Iran - saw 510,000 people killed in global conflicts, a 139% increase from his first term when he was riding out the Bush years. Trump managed to reduce that by around 25%, to 383,000. Then came Joe Biden, the Ukraine War, October 7, and the pullout from Afghanistan. The first three years of Biden’s term increased Trump’s first full term by 82%, or 670,000 deaths by armed conflict. That number doesn’t include 2024.
The dominos that started to fall when Obama was president and was briefly paused during the Trump administration collapsed with the end of the Assad regime in Syria. Make no mistake, Assad was an evil tyrant who deserved to be deposed. But just because Assad was evil doesn’t mean that whoever replaces him is good. That logic belongs in either a kindergarten or the Ivy League.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has emerged as a key figure in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Once affiliated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, he has been a target of U.S. sanctions since 2013 and has a $10 million bounty on his head. Al-Jolani’s path to power in Syria has been marked by violence and extremism, including his role in forming the Al-Qaeda-linked group Jabhat al-Nusra, which later evolved into HTS. Despite his claims to have distanced himself from extremist groups and his attempts to present himself as a moderate force, his leadership in Idlib has been marred by accusations of grave human rights abuses, including unlawful killings, child soldier recruitment, and torture. Al-Jolani’s stated aim to impose Sharia law in Syria further complicates the future of the country, particularly for its religious and ethnic minorities.
Just like Jimmy Carter’s weakness led to the Iranian Revolution, and Obama’s weakness led to the Arab Spring, Biden’s weakness led to the toppling of a despot to be replaced with a terrorist. None of this is worth celebrating. Israel, for its part, is taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to destroy Syrian military capabilities and secure its own border. Hopefully, the incoming Trump administration will restore a strong worldwide presence so all of these conflicts can come to an end. At the very least, global death due to conflict should be lower when America is not as weak at it has been these past four years.
