There are many parallels between the 2016 and 2024 election for President of the United States. These highlight the strong indications that Donald Trump will emerge the victor.
For starters, the latest New York Times/Sienna College poll has President Trump and Vice President Harris in a virtual tie, with each at 48% of the popular vote. The momentum has shifted to President Trump with the Vice President dropping from a slight lead in early October 49% to 46% to a neck and neck position for the popular vote now. The election will be decided as it was in 2016 by the seven swing states-Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. President Trump has the edge in recent polls in these battleground states.
In 2016, President Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton in most polls for the popular vote. The ABC/Washington Post poll had Hillary at 49% to 46% for President Trump with a 2.5% margin of error. Fox had it at 48% to 44% with a similar margin of error, and Bloomberg had it at 46% to 43% with a 3.5% margin of error. In 2016, most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton but overestimated the size of the lead. In 2016, most analysts did not take into account the lead President Trump had built up in the electoral college. By being tied in the polls for the popular vote with Vice President Harris at this stage, he is already ahead of 2016.
Hillary Clinton wanted to be the first woman president in U.S. history. Vice President Harris has the same aspiration. Hillary Clinton was a much stronger candidate. Even the New York Times, in an op-ed entitled “The Kamala Harris Report Card,” wrote, “The painful reality for Ms. Harris is that in private conversations over the last few months, dozens of Democrats in the White House, on Capitol Hill and around the nation - including some who helped put her on the party’s 2020 ticket - said she had not risen to the challenge of proving herself as a future leader of the party, much less the country. Even some Democrats whom her own advisers referred reporters to for supportive quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her.” Hillary Clinton had no such criticism.
Both Clinton and Harris chose weak running mates. Both were named Tim. Tim Kaine ran with Ms. Clinton and Tim Walz is Harris’ Vice Presidential candidate. Both picks were at best only lukewarm to cool on their support of Israel.
In 2020, the election was overshadowed by the Covid pandemic. 2024 is similar in that regard to 2016. Covid is no longer an overwhelming issue. However just as the immigration crisis was a major theme in 2016, it once again takes top billing. According to the New York Times Sienna poll, 16% of respondents said immigration was their top issue. Indeed, President Trump’s strong messaging on immigration in 2016 might well have won him the election then. The issue has become even greater and more pressing now.
The economy always plays a major role in any election. Most voters consider this the number one issue. President Trump gets high marks in every poll for his ability to handle the economy. In 2020, inflation was running at 1.2%. Today, runaway inflation is at 3.1%. The cost of groceries has gone up 25.8% since President Biden and Vice President Harris took office. Eggs have increased 54% and milk 36%.
There are many parallels between the Presidential race of 2016 to the current one. The swing states will again determine the outcome. President Trump is doing better overall in the polls in 2024 compared to 2016. He is on better footing both in the popular vote and the electoral college vote. He has a clear path to victory. He also has momentum on his side. My gut says he will win.
Joseph M. Frager is a physician and lifelong activist.
