Although the economy, immigration crisis, and crime might be the most important issues American voters are focusing on, Israel will play a deciding role in the upcoming election. A recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs exclusively provided to CNN shows that the majority of Americans (60%) support Israel’s military operations at least till all of the hostages are released.
This is a consistent and solid level of support despite the war entering its 12th month. Any degree of variation of this level of support will adversely affect a candidate at the ballot box. This is precisely what happened to Congress members Jamaal Bowman and Corey Bush, both of whom joined the small group of politicians who were anti-Israel. The Jews in both of the defeated Congressional districts voted overwhelmingly in favor of their opponent. The same thing can happen to Kamala Harris.
Many Jews are feeling uneasy with Harris’ alliances with the Squad and particularly AOC, whom she featured in a primetime spot on the first night of the Democratic National Convention. Harris has spoken positively about the pro-Hamas demonstrators on college campuses. She was one of the first politicians to join the Squad in calling for a ceasefire. Jews in America are uncomfortable with her actions. They are not happy that as the President of the Senate, she boycotted Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech. They are also displeased that she did not choose Governor Josh Shapiro as a running mate because he was Jewish and is vocally pro-Israel.
The Jewish vote should never be taken for granted. A recent Sienna Poll in New York showed that 50% of Jews favor Trump over Harris. This is a dramatic change. In June, Biden led Trump 52% to 46% among Jewish voters. If indeed at least 50% of Jews vote for Trump, then he will win the election. Trump got just 30% of the Jewish vote in 2020. Because Jews are located throughout America and in particular swing states, they can carry an election. Trump lost Arizona by only 11,000 votes in 2020. There are 123,725 Jews in Arizona. With 50% of Jews voting for Trump, he easily takes Arizona. The same thing can be said for Georgia, where Trump lost by 12,000 votes, and Wisconsin, where he lost by 20,000 votes. There are 141,000 Jews in Georgia and 33,455 in Wisconsin. It carries over to Nevada, where Trump lost by 33,000 votes. Nevada has 80,000 Jews. More than enough to make up the difference. Trump lost Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes in 2020 and won by 40,000 votes in 2016. Pennsylvania is home to 434,165 Jews. If 50% of Jews vote for Trump, Pennsylvania will be his. Michigan would be a bit harder. Trump lost Michigan by 150,000 votes. There are 88,000 Jews in Michigan. The good news is that Trump won Michigan by 11,000 votes in 2016. The Jewish vote is essential there. Michigan has a large Orthodox Jewish community. Orthodox Jews tend to vote 100% for Trump. There is a good chance that well over 50% of Jews in Michigan will vote for Trump.
Israel will play an oversized role in this election. The more Kamala Harris sides with the anti-Israel forces, fewer Jews will vote for her. This could well be the deciding factor in this election.
Joseph M. Frager is a physician and lifelong activist.
